A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
